ISSN 1300-1868
 

Original Research (Original Article) 


EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION RELATIONS DURING THE PERIOD OF DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY

Harun TERZİ, Serdar KURT.

Abstract
In this study, whether or not the exchange rate pass-through effect to domestic prices changes in high and low levels of the dollarization in Turkish economy is investigated by using VAR analysis with inflation, exchange rate, money supply, prices of export and import variables for the period of 1995:01-2006:04. In the VAR analysis for 1995-2006, it was fixed a Granger causality from real exchange rate to inflation. The results from sub-periods VAR analysis showed that dollarization important variable for exchange rate pass-through affect to domestic prices. While level of dollarization is high, exchange rate pass-through affect to domestic prices is low and vice versa. Results of variance decompositon supported causality relationships from VAR analysis. Results from impulse response fonction conform with VAR and variance decompositon. As a general results, due to different level of dollarization before and after the year 2001, VAR analysis with five variables estimated for the two periods, and it is determined that the exchange rate pass-through affect to domestic prices has declined for the period of 2001-2006.

Key words: Real Exchange Rates, Inflation, Dollarization, Time Series, VAR.



TÜRKİYE'DE DOLARİZASYON SÜRECİNDE DÖVİZ KURU VE ENFLASYON İLİŞKİSİ

Ozet
Bu çalışmada, 1995:01-2006:04 dönemi enflasyon, döviz kuru, para arzı, ithalat ve ihracat fiyatları değişkenleri ile Türkiye ekonomisinde kurdan fiyatlara geçiş etkisinin yüksek ve düşük dolarizasyon düzeylerinde değişim gösterip göstermediği VAR yöntemi işe araştırılmıştır. 1995-2006 dönemi için yapılan VAR analizinde, reel döviz kurundan enflasyona doğru Granger anlamda bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Alt dönemler için yapılan VAR analizlerden elde edilen sonuçlar dolarizasyonun kurdan fiyatlara geçiş etkisi için önemli bir değişken olduğunu göstermiştir. Dolarizasyon yüksek iken kurda meydana gelen bir değişmenin fiyatlara geçiş etkisinin daha fazla olduğu, dolarizasyon oranı düşük iken kurda meydana gelen bir artışın fiyatlara geçiş etkisinin daha zayıf olduğu belirlenmiştir. Varyans ayrıştırması sonuçları VAR analizinden elde edilen nedensellik ilişkilerini desteklemektedir. Etki tepki analizi sonuçları da VAR ve varyans ayrıştırması sonuçları ile uyumludur. Genel olarak değerlendirildiğinde, 2001 yılı öncesi ve sonrası iki farklı dolarizasyon seviyesi için beş değişkenli VAR analizi uygulanmış ve 2001-2006 döneminde, kurdan fiyatlara geçiş etkisinin azaldığı belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Reel Döviz Kuru, Enflasyon, Dolarizasyon, Zaman Serisi, VAR.


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Harun TERZI, Serdar KURT. [EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION RELATIONS DURING THE PERIOD OF DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2007; 18(64): 1-22. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10635


Web Style

Harun TERZI, Serdar KURT. [EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION RELATIONS DURING THE PERIOD OF DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY]. http://www.ekonomikyaklasim.org/?mno=156089 [Access: November 15, 2018]. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10635


AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Harun TERZI, Serdar KURT. [EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION RELATIONS DURING THE PERIOD OF DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2007; 18(64): 1-22. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10635



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Harun TERZI, Serdar KURT. [EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION RELATIONS DURING THE PERIOD OF DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. (2007), [cited November 15, 2018]; 18(64): 1-22. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10635



Harvard Style

Harun TERZI, Serdar KURT (2007) [EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION RELATIONS DURING THE PERIOD OF DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 18 (64), 1-22. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10635



Turabian Style

Harun TERZI, Serdar KURT. 2007. [EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION RELATIONS DURING THE PERIOD OF DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 18 (64), 1-22. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10635



Chicago Style

Harun TERZI, Serdar KURT. "[EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION RELATIONS DURING THE PERIOD OF DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 18 (2007), 1-22. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10635



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Harun TERZI, Serdar KURT. "[EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION RELATIONS DURING THE PERIOD OF DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 18.64 (2007), 1-22. Print.Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10635



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Harun TERZI, Serdar KURT (2007) [EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION RELATIONS DURING THE PERIOD OF DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 18 (64), 1-22. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10635





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