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ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9

Oktar TREL.

Abstract
The currency and banking crises which the Turkish economy faced in the last sixteen years are generally attributed to financial and fiscal fragilities, typical of developing countries with liberalised capital accounts. Although the sudden stops and reversals in capital flows seem to be the common factor underlying crises of that kind, the three cases analysed in the text took place at different international and domestic conjunctures and were unfolded in different policy environments. In the international context, the volume, composition and degree of volatility of capital flows made a major impact on the severity and evolution of the crises. In the context of the national economy, not only diverse exchange rate arrangements and demand management policies, but also the changing emphases on institutional issues put their imprint on the actual course of events. The paper starts with definitions, explanations and stylised facts about currency and banking crises. It later goes into exploring the behaviour of the relevant indicators (i.e. those related to balance of payments, finance and public sector accounts) in Turkey over the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods in each of the crises concerned. The possibility of using some of these indicators as advance warning signals is also discussed. The last three crises in the Turkish economy were not simply the outcomes of policy mistakes committed by Turkey alone, but were also highly influenced by systemic features of the world economy working under neoliberal principles. The fact that the Turkish governments since the capital account liberalisation have been either unable or unwilling to monitor the transmission mechanisms of international shocks into the domestic economy suggests that currency and banking crises in Turkey are likely to recur over the medium term.

Key words: Currency Crises, Banking Crises, Solvency and Liquidity, International Capital Movements, Current Account Balance, Real Exchange Rates



TRKYEDE 1994, 2001 VE 2008-9 EKONOMK KRZLERNN KARILATIRMALI ANALZ

Özet
Trkiye ekonomisinin son onalt ylda karlat para ve bankaclk krizleri, sermaye hesabn serbestletirmi baz gelimekte olan lkeler (GO)deki finansal ve fiskal krlganla atfedilen krizler balamnda mtalaa edilmektedir. Speklatif sermaye hareketlerindeki ani yn ve hacim deiiklikleri Trkiyenin krizinde ortak ve tetikleyici e olarak gzlenmekle birlikte, sz konusu kriz, uluslararas ve ulusal ortam ve koullar asndan farkllklar gstermektedir. Uluslararas planda, sermaye akmlarnn hacim, bileim ve oynakl, yerel krizin evrimini ve iddetini etkilemektedir. Her krizde, kur ve talep idaresi politikalarnn uygulanma biimi ile kurumsal yaplanmaya verilen nem ve ncelikler deimitir. Yazda ilkin GOܒdeki para ve bankaclk krizleri ile ilgili tanm, gzlem ve aklamalar sunulmakta, daha sonra demeler dengesi, finans ve kamu maliyesi alanlarndan seilmi gstergelerin, kriz ncesinde, kriz sresinde ve kriz sonrasnda nasl davrand sergilenmekte, hangi oran ve/veya parametrelerden nc gstergeler olarak yararlanlabilecei tartlmaktadr. Trkiyenin yaad son kriz, sadece Trkiyenin iktisat politikas hatalarndan deil, uluslararas ekonomik dzenin ileyiiyle ilgili, sistemik nedenlerden de kaynaklanmaktadr. Hkmetlerin d oklar lkeye tayan aktarm mekanizmalar zerinde etkili olabilecek nlemler almaktan kanmalar, bu tr krizlerin orta vadede yinelenebileceini dndrmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Para Krizleri, Bankaclk Krizleri, Bor deyebilirlik ve Likidite, Uluslararas Sermaye Hareketleri, Cari lemler Dengesi, Reel Kur


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Oktar TUREL. [ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2010; 21(75): 27-75. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704


Web Style

Oktar TUREL. [ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]. http://www.ekonomikyaklasim.org/?mno=156120 [Access: February 23, 2018]. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704


AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Oktar TUREL. [ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2010; 21(75): 27-75. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Oktar TUREL. [ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. (2010), [cited February 23, 2018]; 21(75): 27-75. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



Harvard Style

Oktar TUREL (2010) [ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 21 (75), 27-75. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



Turabian Style

Oktar TUREL. 2010. [ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 21 (75), 27-75. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



Chicago Style

Oktar TUREL. "[ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 21 (2010), 27-75. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Oktar TUREL. "[ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 21.75 (2010), 27-75. Print.Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Oktar TUREL (2010) [ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 21 (75), 27-75. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



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